DOI: https://doi.org/10.61435/ijred.2026.62024
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The polluters' paradox: Exploring the impact of green transition potential on carbon emissions in top ten emitters

1Department of Finance and Banking, College of Business Administration, Dar Al Uloom University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

2Department of Economics, College of Business, Imam Mohammad Ibn Saud Islamic University (IMSIU), Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

3QuAnLab LR24ES21, Higher School of Commerce, University of Manouba, Mnouba, Tunisia

Received: 27 Nov 2025; Revised: 7 Jan 2026; Accepted: 25 Jan 2026; Available online: 10 Feb 2026; Published: 1 Mar 2026.
Editor(s): Grigorios Kyriakopoulos
Open Access Copyright (c) 2026 The Author(s). Published by Centre of Biomass and Renewable Energy (CBIORE)
Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

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Abstract

Understanding the determinants of CO2emissions and the real possibilities for energy transition is essential to supporting sustainable growth, particularly for the world's ten largest emitters. These countries present a notable paradox: despite high economic complexity and efforts towards green transition, their emissions remain among the highest, revealing a persistent structural dependence on carbon-intensive activities and thus calling into question their effective capacity to sustainably reduce their emissions. This study fills a gap by simultaneously analyzing polluting specialisation and green transition potential using two indicators derived from economic complexity: the Brown Lock-In Index (BLI) and the Green Complexity Potential (GCP). The analysis, conducted on a panel of the ten largest CO2 emitters between 1999 and 2023 using FMOLS and PCSE estimators, shows that a carbon-intensive economic structure significantly increases emissions, while a higher green complexity potential contributes to their reduction. Furthermore, while economic growth and the use of non-renewable energies intensify environmental pressure, the consumption of renewable energies plays an important mitigating role. By highlighting the combined effect of polluting specialization and transition potential, this study offers decision-makers a structured understanding of the sources of their emissions and the real margins for transitioning to a low-carbon economy.

Keywords: CO2 Emissions; Brown Lock-In; Green Complexity Potential.
Funding: Deanship of Scientific Research at Imam Mohammad Ibn Saud Islamic University (IMSIU). under contract grant number IMSIU-DDRSP2502

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Section: Original Research Article
Language : EN
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