DOI: https://doi.org/10.61435/ijred.2025.61680

Future Wind Speed and Energy Potential in Togo: Projections from CORDEX-Africa Models

1Centre d’Excellence Régional pour la Maîtrise de l’Electricité (CERME), Togo

2Université de Lomé (UL) - TOGO, Togo

Received: 15 Aug 2025; Published: 8 Nov 2025.
Editor(s): H Hadiyanto
Open Access Copyright (c) 2025 The Author(s). Published by Centre of Biomass and Renewable Energy (CBIORE)
Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

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Abstract

This study combines model evaluation and seasonal analysis to assess Togo’s wind energy potential. First, the accuracy of MERRA-2 reanalysis and bias-corrected CORDEX-Africa Regional Climate Models (RCMs) was evaluated against ground observations using Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, R², and other metrics. MERRA-2 demonstrated excellent agreement with observations (R² = 0.96), and corrected RCMs achieved similarly high correlations across regions: Maritime (0.96), Plateaux (0.93), Centrale (0.91), Kara (0.94), and Savanes (0.96). Reliable models (MIROC, MPI, ICHEC) reproduce the persistent north–south gradient, with northern sites reaching 10–12 m/s at ≥90 m, central sites 6.5–8 m/s, and southern sites 3–5 m/s, with localized enhancements from coastal breezes and orographic effects.
Monthly and seasonal analysis reveals peak wind speeds from June to September, with July’s national mean at 4.18 m/s and the north consistently outperforming other zones. Projected wind power density confirms strong seasonality: the north experiences a 23 % drop from July to December, the center a similar but steadier decline, and the south and coast smaller reductions (14 % and 11 %), indicating greater stability and offshore potential. From January to June, density rises from 82.3 W/m² to a June peak of 129.4 W/m², exceeding 270 W/m² in optimal northern and coastal sites. These results highlight both the spatial concentration of high wind resources and the importance of seasonal planning, hybridization, and region-specific deployment strategies.

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Keywords: Togo; wind energy potential; MERRA-2; CORDEX-Africa; Regional Climate Models; bias correction; model evaluation; seasonal wind variability; wind power

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Section: Original Research Article
Language : EN
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