DOI: https://doi.org/10.61435/ijred.2025.61121

Energy resource development in the DRC: A scenario planning for hydroelectric potential development by 2050 based on OSeMOSYS

1Regional Water School , University of Kinshasa , Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo

2Department of Engineering Sciences, AUMT, Brazzaville Campus, Congo

3Center Kitsisa Khonde for Studies and Research on Renewable Energies , Institute of Applied Techniques, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo

4 Department of Business Administration, College of Science and Human Studies, Hotat Sudair, Majmaah University, Saudi Arabia

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Received: 11 Feb 2025; Revised: 17 Apr 2025; Accepted: 8 May 2025; Available online: 30 May 2025; Published: 1 Jul 2025.
Editor(s): Grigorios Kyriakopoulos
Open Access Copyright (c) 2025 The Author(s). Published by Centre of Biomass and Renewable Energy (CBIORE)
Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

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Abstract

Energy planning is a privileged scientific tool, enabling quantified analyses of the energy future of countries or regions of the world. These analyses provide a scientific basis for energy policies and implementation strategies. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), despite its considerable hydroelectric potential, makes little use of its resources due to various challenges, leaving a large part of the population without access to electricity, which hampers community and economic development. This article analyzes the opportunities for developing the hydroelectric potential of the DRC up to 2050. Using OSeMOSYS (Open-Source Energy Modelling System), prospective modelling was carried out to assess the technical, economic and environmental impacts of an ambitious energy scenario centered on hydropower (Scenario HYDRO).  The study develops an energy modelling approach for the DRC, considering demand, supply and energy policies, based on reliable data and aimed at optimizing the use of resources, in particular hydroelectric potential. The results indicate a potential installed capacity of 23 GW by 2050, dominated by hydropower (83%). This scenario meets the growing needs of national electrification, with 70% of the energy designated for the residential sector. The study highlights a significant reduction in CO2 emissions, estimated at 1,229 Mt cumulative by 2050. However, achieving these targets will require around USD 100 billion in investment. The results provide a sound basis for the development of energy policies in the DRC that will promote universal access to sustainable energy, reduce carbon emissions, reduce pressure on forests and ensure energy security. The results of this study recommend massive investment in hydropower, standardization of the electricity sector and improved data collection to achieve universal electrification and significantly reduce CO2 emissions in the DRC by 2050.

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Keywords: Energy modelling; OSeMOSYS; hydropower; Democratic Republic of Congo; energy transition; CO2 emissions reduction

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Section: Original Research Article
Language : EN
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